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Large Bund downside

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  • USDBRL breached the Mid-July lows as the Real extends on a particularly strong week. A sustained break below 5.0550 would be bearish and expose 5.00 plus the Jun 25 low of 4.8934. The latter is a key support. BRL gains relieved pressure in the Di Curve where swap rates fell between 5-8 bps between the front and belly of the curve on Thursday.
  • Local currency strength comes ahead of the August Copom meeting next Wednesday, where the BCB are widely expected to raise rates by 100bps to 5.25%. The most recent inflation data has triggered multiple sell-side institutions to revise their rate trajectory projections.
    • Our full preview with analyst views will be published early next week.
  • Today, Brazil's primary budget balance likely to show a deficit of 64.0b Reais in June, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg survey, after a deficit of 15.5b Reais in prior reading.
    • Additionally: 1300BST/0800ET - May National Unemployment Rate, Est. 14.5%, Prior 14.7%.