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USDBRL Consolidating +2% Gains As Political tensions Escalate

BRAZIL
  • The Brazilian real is the worst-performing major currency on Monday, depreciating around 2.2% against the greenback. While regional and EM currencies have significantly underperformed to start the week, domestic headlines are undoubtedly an additional headwind for the real.
  • As a reminder a former lower-house deputy, Roberto Jefferson, resisted arrest and got into a gun battle with police carrying out a court order. Jefferson shot at the cops using an assault rifle and threw grenades when officers arrived at his residence in Rio de Janeiro state on Sunday.
  • The news item has dominated local news and, even though both Bolsonaro and Lula criticized Jefferson’s actions, it reinforces concerns about possible violence after Sunday’s runoff vote that is expected to be a close-run affair.
  • From a technical perspective, attention is on resistance at 5.4286, the Sep 29 high. A break of this level would expose 5.5142, the Jul 21 high and a key resistance. On the downside, key short-term support has been defined at 5.1121, the Oct 4 low. A break lower would instead highlight a bearish development.
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