Free Trial
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
CANADA
- At sub-1.26, USDCAD has now slipped -3.7% from the May 12 high of 1.3077 from a combination of a rolling over in USD strength and strong CAD factors including surprisingly strong inflation.
- The latest slide in the pair following recent BOC hawkishness (latest being Dep Gov Beaudry on increasing chance of rates north of 3%) and USD weakness sees the pair sitting just above support at 1.2562 (61.8% retrace of the Apr 5 – May 12 bull run).
- As noted in the MNI BoC Review, there is a wide range in some analyst expectations for the pair: TD view CAD as the most overbought on their dashboard and sees a high frequency fair value of 1.27-1.28 whilst ING sees a supportive CAD backdrop supporting both in the short-term by offsetting USD appreciation and longer-term with USDCAD eyed at 1.22 year-end.
- Some of this uncertainty comes from a real effective exchange rate sitting very close to long-run averages (offering little bias) and CFTC net spec positioning has shifted to a net short position but isn’t particularly large historically which could move either way.
- In addition, the pair remains heavily led by risk sentiment, with greater risk-off flows easily having potential to unwind recent moves.
Source: Bloomberg
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
We are facing technical issues, please contact our team.
ok
Your request was sent sucessfully! Our team will contact you soon.
ok