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USDCAD Dips With Oil Gains, Tomorrow’s Expiry Biases Higher

CANADA
  • USDCAD has tilted to session lows of 1.3475 with oil pushing higher, but the pair remains within yesterday’s pre- and post-CPI range.
  • It bottomed out at 1.3467 yesterday whilst support is still seen as exposed, with 1.3420 (Mar 8 low) and then a key 1.3359 (Jan 31 low).
  • Tomorrow’s focus is on US PPI and retail sales, with Canadian final mfg sales of far lesser note.
  • It also sees decent-sized option expiry skewed higher, with a combined $1.25bn at 1.3500 and 1.3525, plus further away a solid $1.04bn at 1.3600.
  • Today’s limited macro slate saw the Canadian household debt service ratio hold at 15.0% in Q4 after a downward revised 15.0 (initial 15.2) in Q3. Rather than pushing to new record highs, it’s instead plateaued at joint record highs seen previously in 2007 and 2019.

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