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USDCAD Hovers Below 1.3700 Pre-Data, Expiry Could Bias Higher

CANADA
  • USDCAD sits 5-10 pips below the 1.37 handle ahead of dual retail sales and input cost inflation at 0830ET - see mini preview above.
  • It has lifted from an overnight low of 1.3675 in a move that pierced support at 1.3680 (Jun 12 low) and 1.3676 (50-day EMA). A clear move lower here could open a key support at 1.3590 (May 16 low).
  • The pullback from last week’s high of 1.3792 came since CFTC data showed CAD net shorts at a historically large 42% of open interest (last larger in mid-2017) having built from 35% prior to the BoC’s not fully priced first cut of the cycle.
  • Today’s NY cut sees largest expiry a little far removed with $1.3bn at 1.3800. It’s followed by $687m at today’s low of 1.3675 although there’s a heavy cumulative $2.2bn across 1.3700-1.3740. That could help bias higher in the short-term but US flash PMIs at 0945ET will likely dictate moves.
  • BoC-dated OIS shows 16bp of cuts for next month’s meeting.
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