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DOLLAR-CANADA: *** USDCAD last trades at 1.2890. A soft Canadian GDP release saw
the pair touch session highs just > 1.2930 on Thur before the USD pullback
allowed the cross to consolidate < 1.2900. Wed's low of 1.2863 held, with the
next level of interest below being the 1.0% envelope 10-DMA level at 1.2824. To
the upside the Mar28/23 highs of 1.2933 & 1.2940 remained intact, with any
breach opening a move to 1.2970, the 50% retracement of the 1.3125-1.2815 move.
- MNI suggest that the GDP print adds to the uncertainty surrounding the US
tariffs & will likely push back the next (data-dependent) BoC hike, even as
inflation continues to trend higher. (For Full Story See Main Wire At 17:10 BST
- BMO highlight that "the drop in GDP was only the 2nd monthly setback in the
past 15 mths & appeared very sector specific. Still, the underlying story is
that growth remains sluggish at less than 2%. We continue to look for the BoC to
wait until the H218, presumably when they have some clarity on both NAFTA & how
housing is faring, before tightening again." Markets currently price a little
under 20% chance of a hike at the BoC's April decision.