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USDCAD Nearing Oversold Territory, But With CAD REER Already Below Historical Averages

CANADA
  • Note that with USDCAD having pushed through two supports today and currently hovering close to mid-Feb lows at almost 1.334, the 14-day RSI is nudging oversold territory for the pair at 31 or the lowest since Oct’21.
  • It tallies with CFTC CAD net shorts of -35% OI being the most extended since 2019 (as of Apr 4).


  • It does however offer an interesting contrast with longer-term real trade-weighted performance, which despite the C$ real effective exchange rate appreciating from mid-March levels is still 2% below its five-year average and 4% below its ten-year average.
  • The building up of net shorts could be targeting a further growth rotation towards Asia, building on a prior trend when comparing relative performance of the Aussie dollar real effective exchange rate over the past six months.

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