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USDCAD Slides 1% Despite CAD Underperformance

CANADA
  • USDCAD sits -0.96% at 1.2765 off an earlier low of 1.2751 having comfortably cleared support at 1.2818 (Aug 4 low) and more tentatively 1.2767/63 (Aug 1/June 13 lows).
  • A sustained clearance would strengthen technical bearish conditions and open 1.2685 (76.4% retracement of the Jun 8 – Jul 14 upleg), whilst 1mth risk reversal falls to lowest since Jun 10 at 1.045.
  • CAD again underperforms other majors on the day though, seeing little support from crude oil currently edging higher for the day after whipsawing through the session.
  • Rather, declines in the pair are likely limited by Can-US yield differentials at or extending to new recent lows with 2Y at -1bp and 10Y at -11bps.

USDCAD spot (white) and 1m 25D risk reversal (yellow)Source: Bloomberg

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