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USDCAD Testing Session Lows As Oil Firms Again

CANADA
  • USDCAD sits -0.5% at 1.2845 as it holds just above session lows of 1.2843 for the third time, with CAD best of the rest on the day behind NOK, helped partly by oil firming.
  • It’s still within yesterday’s wide, PMI-induced range, the low of which forms initial support at 1.2823 just above a key near-term support of 1.2819 (Jun 28 low). Further pressure at these levels would strengthen bearish conditions and also confirm a clear break of both the 20- and 50-day EMAs.
  • Latest CFTC net spec data continue to show a mildly constructive view for CAD, with net longs growing from 2.5% to 4.7% of OI but in broader terms are little changed over the past five weeks. That was however prior to Wednesday’s CPI miss, which whilst it didn’t spark a sharp move higher in USDCAD, it did stop the move lower.
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