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USDCAD With Technical Room To Move Either Side

CANADA
  • USDCAD sits within yesterday’s range at 1.2937, a ~1% retracement from Tuesday’s high of 1.3063.
  • That retracement masks MA studies in a bull mode condition, but there is wiggle room in either direction with Powell eyed, with firm support at the 50-day EMA of 1.2887 and initial resistance at 1.2976 (yesterday high).
  • WTI staging a limited recovery from yesterday’s drop only helps CAD at the margin, with correlation continuing to fade in absolute terms on a 20-day rolling basis to just -0.23 as broader dollar moves win out, whilst front end Can-US yield differentials remain relatively elevated for the past month but within ranges from the past three at +14bps.

USDCAD (white) and 2Y Can-US yield differential (blue)Source: Bloomberg

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