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USDCAD Within Post-CPI Range, BoC Minutes Likely A Brief Distraction Before FOMC

CANADA
  • USDCAD at ~1.358 is just 10-15 pips above pre-CAD CPI levels, after the miss helped spark yesterday’s increase to 1.3614.
  • The clearance of the bull trigger at 1.3606 (Feb 28 high) has opened 1.3623 (61.8% retrace of Nov 1 – Dec 27 bear leg).
  • The FOMC decision is going to set the near-term tone though. We expect limited reaction to today’s BoC Minutes just beforehand at 1330ET. The weaker CPI has made them stale with local focus on Gravelle tomorrow for a) any indication of QT changes and b) reaction to CPI in the Q&A.
  • One of the more dovish lines from what was ultimately a more hawkish than expected BoC on Mar 6 was the point that wage growth may be easing, with any further details here of note.
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