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USDCLP Consolidates Most Recent Bounce

CHILE
  • Amid the tight ranges for Latin American currencies, the Chilean peso is broadly unchanged on the session. USDCLP is however holding on to the bounce seen on Thursday despite the extension higher for major equity indices over the latter half of the week. As such, USDCL trend conditions remain bullish, and Tuesday’s fresh cycle high reinforces current conditions. Having breached key resistance at 955.00, the Oct 16 ‘23 high, this confirmed a resumption of the medium-term uptrend and opens 985.84 as the most notable topside target for the move, the Oct 25 ‘22 high.
  • Following policymakers discussion of an even larger 150bp interest rate cut at the recent BCCh policy meeting, incoming data will be even more keenly watched. Next week’s data calendar is light, with just January PPI in the docket, and the next major release will be January activity data on 29th Feb.
  • On yesterday’s minutes, Goldman Sachs said while it is clear that the MPC wants to continue with an aggressive easing cycle towards a neutral monetary policy stance, they believe the pace of cuts going forward will depend on incoming data and global financial conditions. Itaú expect the board will continue with the 100bp rate cut pace in April, rather than accelerate the pace, and see the policy rate reaching 4.5% during the 2H24.
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