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USDCLP Continues To Extend Higher, Colombian Peso Outperforms

LATAM FX
  • Despite some temporary relief for the Chilean Peso following the latest BCCh decision to decelerate the pace of easing, USDCLP has resumed its aggressive strengthening on Thursday, rising an impressive 1.7% at typing. Although the decision was deemed marginally hawkish-to-expectations, the aggressive start to the easing cycle (175bps over two meetings) continues to underpin the most recent breakout for USDCLP.
  • Today’s price action has seen the pair extend above key resistance at 872.75, the Aug 18 high, confirming a resumption of the uptrend. The pair has significantly narrowed the gap with 893.22, the Dec 16 high from last year.
  • Chile inflation data is expected to show a further deceleration to 5.6% Y/y and will be a key release ahead of the weekend following some marginal higher adjustments to both year-end 2023 and 2024 CPI forecasts in yesterday’s IPoM.
  • In stark contrast, the Colombian Peso outperforms across LatAm FX and has risen 0.88% against the greenback. The moves come amid Shares in Cementos Argos soaring after the Colombian concrete maker said it will merge its US operation with Summit Materials in a deal valued at $3.2 billion. Additionally, despite today’s decline in crude futures, the rally over recent weeks has likely bolstered the resilient profile of the Colombian Peso.
  • In similar vein, Colombia CPI will be a very notable release overnight as BanRep analysts continue to weigh the incoming data against the administration’s calls for looser monetary policy.
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