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CNH: USD/CNH Eyeing 200-day MA Test, Busy Data Day, Along with Consumption Brief

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USD/CNH is tracking modestly softer in the first part of Monday dealings, the pair last near 7.2310. This is around intra-session lows from Friday's session. CNH gained 0.14% on Friday, while USD/CNY spot ended up at 7.2374. The CNY basket tracker ended last week up a touch (per BBG), but at 98.81 is still close to recent multi month lows. 

  • For USD/CNH technicals, downside focus may rest with the simple 200-day MA, which we briefly tested below last week (near 7.2220 still). We are already sub the 200-day EMA (near 7.2390). the 20 and 100-day EMAs rest above 7.2550 on the topside.
  • Local equity sentiment surged in Friday onshore markets, the CSI 300 up over 2% and the index above 4000 (fresh highs for 2025). Optimism around efforts to boost consumption, which are expected to be announced at an onshore press conference later today (3pm time), buoyed sentiment. In US markets, the Golden Dragon index rose 2.69% on Friday.
  • Over the weekend Xinhua reported on a statement from China's State Council on efforts to boost consumption, via higher incomes, along with other policy focus points (see this BBG link for more details).
  • On the data front, we have Feb home prices today, which have shown an improving trend, albeit still declining m/m. A little later we have the Feb IP, retail sales, fixed asset investment and jobless rate figures due. These activity figures are just presented in ytd y/y terms due to the LNY impact. 
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USD/CNH is tracking modestly softer in the first part of Monday dealings, the pair last near 7.2310. This is around intra-session lows from Friday's session. CNH gained 0.14% on Friday, while USD/CNY spot ended up at 7.2374. The CNY basket tracker ended last week up a touch (per BBG), but at 98.81 is still close to recent multi month lows. 

  • For USD/CNH technicals, downside focus may rest with the simple 200-day MA, which we briefly tested below last week (near 7.2220 still). We are already sub the 200-day EMA (near 7.2390). the 20 and 100-day EMAs rest above 7.2550 on the topside.
  • Local equity sentiment surged in Friday onshore markets, the CSI 300 up over 2% and the index above 4000 (fresh highs for 2025). Optimism around efforts to boost consumption, which are expected to be announced at an onshore press conference later today (3pm time), buoyed sentiment. In US markets, the Golden Dragon index rose 2.69% on Friday.
  • Over the weekend Xinhua reported on a statement from China's State Council on efforts to boost consumption, via higher incomes, along with other policy focus points (see this BBG link for more details).
  • On the data front, we have Feb home prices today, which have shown an improving trend, albeit still declining m/m. A little later we have the Feb IP, retail sales, fixed asset investment and jobless rate figures due. These activity figures are just presented in ytd y/y terms due to the LNY impact.