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USDCNY Breaks Above 200DMA

CHINA
  • Implied volatility on CNY remains elevated in April, mostly driven by the increase in selling pressure on the offshore yuan rather than the weaker-than-expected PBoC fixing.
  • The chart below shows that the USDCNH has been persistently closing above the USDCNY exchange rate, currently standing above 320 pips.
  • A former SAFE official mentioned last month that the CNH weakness is a sign that foreign investors are starting to sell their Chinese assets and the tighter policy in the West could continue to lead to portfolio outflows and further CNH depreciation in the medium term.
  • As a reminder, The PBoC announced a 25bps cut in the RRR over the weekend (as expected), lowering the required reserve ratio for all financial institutions to 11.25%, lowest level since May 2007 (effective from April 25).
  • USDCNY broke above its 200DMA in today’s trading session (after breaking through its LT downward trending resistance line yesterday) and is currently trading at its highest level since October 2021.
    • Next resistance to watch on the topside stands at 6.45.

Source: Bloomberg/MNI

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