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USDCOP Hits New YTD Lows, Aided By Oil And Still Attractive Carry

COLOMBIA
  • Despite further gains in the dollar today, the Colombian peso has been a notable outperformer with the currency rallying 0.4% against the greenback at the time of writing. USDCOP fell to 3867 earlier in the session, its lowest since the start of the year, aided by further gains in oil prices and still high carry. Although BanRep is expected to cut by a larger 50bp on Friday, real yields will remain attractive vs. peers.
  • BBVA note that a 50bp cut this week is more than priced in, with the alternative being an even faster pace of easing, which could have more of an impact on the COP. Otherwise, they expect the carry impact and pressures on the COP to be delayed until later in Q224.

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