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USDCZK vs. 10Y Real Interest Rate Differential

CZECHIA
  • As CNB prepares for a tightening cycle, traders have been chasing the CZK in recent weeks as a result of the expected MP divergence between CNB and the major developed central banks.
  • Despite the poor performance in the first quarter due to the worsening Covid situation, which increased the divergence in growth expectations between the US and Czech Republic, the chart below shows that the sharp fall in the real interest rate differential between US and Czech in the past year has been one of the major factors behind the currency (CZK) strength.
  • The 10Y real yield differential fell from a high of 2.8% in May 2020 to -1.22%, pushing the exchange rate down from 25.50 to 20.90 (CZK up over 20%).

Source: Bloomberg/MNI

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