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ASIA FX: USD/IDR Threatening Upside 16000 Test, Higher Yields Supporting USD

ASIA FX
BulletEM BulletAPACEmerging Market News

South East Asia currencies are on the backfoot to varying degrees in the first part of Friday trade. Negative spill over is likely form higher USD/CNH and USD/JPY levels. The rebound in real US yields this past week has been a clear headwind for sentiment in the space as well. 

  • This is most evident for USD/IDR, where spot today is closing in on the 16000 level. We haven't been above this figure level since August of this year. BI was on the wires stating it was conducting quite bold intervention to curb rupiah weakness (per BBG). A clean break higher could see 16200 targeted, last seen in early August this year.
  • The BI meets next week (meeting outcome announced on Wednesday). The economic consensus is for a 25bps cut, although continued FX weakness in the near term could see rates left on hold.
  • Spot USD/THB has rallied, up around 0.50% to be back above the 34.00 figure level. We are still sub the key EMAs, with the 50-day near 34.15 the closest. Recent lows in the pair rest at 33.66.
  • USD/PHP is up around 0.30%, last near 58.40/45. This puts this pair back above all key EMAs.
  • USD/MYR is around 4.4520. The Ringgit has broken through the key technical being the 20-day EMA of 4.4358 with next resistance being the 200-day EMA at 4.4932.
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South East Asia currencies are on the backfoot to varying degrees in the first part of Friday trade. Negative spill over is likely form higher USD/CNH and USD/JPY levels. The rebound in real US yields this past week has been a clear headwind for sentiment in the space as well. 

  • This is most evident for USD/IDR, where spot today is closing in on the 16000 level. We haven't been above this figure level since August of this year. BI was on the wires stating it was conducting quite bold intervention to curb rupiah weakness (per BBG). A clean break higher could see 16200 targeted, last seen in early August this year.
  • The BI meets next week (meeting outcome announced on Wednesday). The economic consensus is for a 25bps cut, although continued FX weakness in the near term could see rates left on hold.
  • Spot USD/THB has rallied, up around 0.50% to be back above the 34.00 figure level. We are still sub the key EMAs, with the 50-day near 34.15 the closest. Recent lows in the pair rest at 33.66.
  • USD/PHP is up around 0.30%, last near 58.40/45. This puts this pair back above all key EMAs.
  • USD/MYR is around 4.4520. The Ringgit has broken through the key technical being the 20-day EMA of 4.4358 with next resistance being the 200-day EMA at 4.4932.