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JPY: USD/JPY Back Sub 153.00 On US Yield Drop

JPY
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Yen gains accelerated post the Asia close on Thursday. USD/JPY got back to 152.70 by the NY session, but we track slightly higher in early Friday dealings (last in the 152.80/85 range). Yen gained just over 1.0% for the session, to be the third best performed in the G10 space behind SEK, with CHF and NOK gains similar to yen. Broader USD sentiment was on the backfoot as Tsy yields reversed the Wednesday gain. 

  • For USD/JPY technicals, key upside focus is on the 50-day EMA, which we have pierced recently, but haven't been sustained. We sit some distance off this level now. On the downside we have the Feb 12 low at 152.38, then the Feb 7 low at 150.93.
  • The market analysed some notably soft details within the PPI data report, translating that into a more negative read for the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation (PCE). This weighed on US yields, which largely reversed Wednesday's CPI inspired gains.
  • USD sentiment was also weighed on vague reciprocal tariff headlines, as markets reacted positively to delaying any implementation until April 2  which gives more time for negotiations to continue.
  • The better global equity tone didn't weigh materially on yen against crosses, as noted above only SEK outperformed yen in the G10 space.
  • On the data front today we just have weekly offshore investment flows.
  • Note the sizable option expiry pipeline for NY cut later on Friday: Y150.00($1.9bln), Y150.90-00($1.6bln), Y152.00($2.8bln), Y153.85($670mln), Y154.00($1.2bln), Y155.00($882mln), Y155.50($1.3bln), Y156.00($1.7bln). 
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Yen gains accelerated post the Asia close on Thursday. USD/JPY got back to 152.70 by the NY session, but we track slightly higher in early Friday dealings (last in the 152.80/85 range). Yen gained just over 1.0% for the session, to be the third best performed in the G10 space behind SEK, with CHF and NOK gains similar to yen. Broader USD sentiment was on the backfoot as Tsy yields reversed the Wednesday gain. 

  • For USD/JPY technicals, key upside focus is on the 50-day EMA, which we have pierced recently, but haven't been sustained. We sit some distance off this level now. On the downside we have the Feb 12 low at 152.38, then the Feb 7 low at 150.93.
  • The market analysed some notably soft details within the PPI data report, translating that into a more negative read for the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation (PCE). This weighed on US yields, which largely reversed Wednesday's CPI inspired gains.
  • USD sentiment was also weighed on vague reciprocal tariff headlines, as markets reacted positively to delaying any implementation until April 2  which gives more time for negotiations to continue.
  • The better global equity tone didn't weigh materially on yen against crosses, as noted above only SEK outperformed yen in the G10 space.
  • On the data front today we just have weekly offshore investment flows.
  • Note the sizable option expiry pipeline for NY cut later on Friday: Y150.00($1.9bln), Y150.90-00($1.6bln), Y152.00($2.8bln), Y153.85($670mln), Y154.00($1.2bln), Y155.00($882mln), Y155.50($1.3bln), Y156.00($1.7bln).