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FOREX: USDJPY Continues to Outperform, Extends Bounce to 1.8%

FOREX
BulletMarketsForeign Exchange Bullets
  • A dip lower for USDJPY post data has reversed as details within the CPI report might not be as benign as originally thought. USDJPY subsequently rose to fresh session highs of 149.19, briefly extending the bounce from yesterday’s lows to 1.8%.
  • Major US equity indices are holding on to strong gains on the session, helping to consolidate the relative JPY underperformance on Wednesday. Additionally, cross/JPY has been well bid on the back of the GPIF portfolio headlines during Tuesday’s session, which countered building expectations for an increase in the stock investment ratio, and is considered a headwind for the Yen at the margin.
  • Overnight, JP Morgan expect JPY-selling from the financial account to mitigate upwards pressure on the Yen into 2H25. Taking these flow dynamics into account, JPM currently maintains their USDJPY target as of 4Q25 at 148.00.
  • Technically, a bear cycle remains in play for USDJPY, and the latest recovery appears corrective. Key short-term resistance is unchanged at 151.30, Mar 3 high.
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  • A dip lower for USDJPY post data has reversed as details within the CPI report might not be as benign as originally thought. USDJPY subsequently rose to fresh session highs of 149.19, briefly extending the bounce from yesterday’s lows to 1.8%.
  • Major US equity indices are holding on to strong gains on the session, helping to consolidate the relative JPY underperformance on Wednesday. Additionally, cross/JPY has been well bid on the back of the GPIF portfolio headlines during Tuesday’s session, which countered building expectations for an increase in the stock investment ratio, and is considered a headwind for the Yen at the margin.
  • Overnight, JP Morgan expect JPY-selling from the financial account to mitigate upwards pressure on the Yen into 2H25. Taking these flow dynamics into account, JPM currently maintains their USDJPY target as of 4Q25 at 148.00.
  • Technically, a bear cycle remains in play for USDJPY, and the latest recovery appears corrective. Key short-term resistance is unchanged at 151.30, Mar 3 high.