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USDJPY Downside Momentum Builds Below 142.00, AUDJPY Falls 0.9%

JPY
  • Despite a relief rally overnight to highs of 143.01, USDJPY has gravitated lower once more, with downside momentum building amid the latest pull lower for core yields and coinciding with a clean break of the 142.00 handle to print fresh intra-day lows of 141.56.
  • Technically the pair has breached the 20-day exponential moving average and attention will be on whether the pair closes below 142.24, the former bull channel top. A sustained break would signal scope for a deeper correction and open 140.30, the 50-day EMA. Longer-term, the primary trend direction remains up. The bull trigger is at 145.07, the Jun 30 high. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the uptrend.
  • AUDJPY screens as one of the weakest pairs on the board, declining 0.90% on Monday and narrowing the gap with the 38.2% retracement of the Mar-Jun bull leg, which comes in at 93.23.
  • Naturally, the focus for yields/the Yen will be Wednesday’s US inflation data where headline CPI is anticipated to decrease by 0.9 percentage points to reach 3.1% Y/y, the lowest level since March 2021. Core CPI is expected to moderate by a more moderate 0.3 pps to 5.0% Y/y.
  • Domestically, there are no tier-one data releases with money stock, PPI and core machine orders on the docket over the next 48 hours.
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