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KOREAN WON: USDKRW is now down on the day after reversing earlier gains to
remain within its sideways trading range, last at 1123.20.
-The won's real effective exchange rate has dropped to 12 month lows after
losing over 2% ytd. We remain fundamentally bearish owing to the US's still-wide
real yield differential, but see potential for a short term bounce in trade
weighted terms and vs the dollar.
- The main reasons it the continued decline in implied vol, risk reversals, and
CDS spreads which are all suggesting that recent USDKRW upside is not supported
by broader risk concerns, despite the recent drop in local equities. The main
risk comes from renewed global equity weakness which could put downside pressure
on the won via yen crosses.