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USDMXN Closes In On Key 19.04 Support

MEXICO
  • USDMXN (-0.46%) continues to trade with a downward bias amid the overall weaker greenback sentiment in 2023. On Monday, Banxico Deputy Governor Jonathan Heath described the latest inflation data as “good news on the margin, but with a still extremely difficult outlook.” Ongoing hawkishness from the central bank continues to underpin the resilient Peso with positive dialogue at the North American leaders summit potentially providing an additional short-term MXN tailwind.
  • As noted, the near-term technical outlook for USDMXN remains bearish following last week’s extension lower. Attention is on 19.0401, a key support and the Nov 29 low. This would also represent near three-year lows for the pair, the lowest level since the early onset of the pandemic in February 2020.
  • A break of this level would confirm a resumption of the broader bear cycle and open 18.9734, the 1.236 projection of the Jul 14 - Sep 12 - Sep 28, price swing last year. Below here the major support resides at 18.5237, the 2020 low.
  • On the upside, key resistance has been defined at 19.5882, the Dec 30 high. A break of this hurdle would be considered a bullish development.
  • On the docket this week, we have November industrial & manufacturing production data, both scheduled for tomorrow’s session before the key US CPI release on Thursday.

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