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USDMXN Edges Toward Next Support, Banxico Decision Thursday

MEXICO
  • USDMXN is slowly edging towards the key support at 19.4136, the May 30 low. Below here, we have 19.2802, which is the 1.00 projection of the Jul 14 - Sep 12 - Sep 28 price swing.
  • The bi-weekly Citi survey of Mexico analysts saw 2022 year-end inflation forecasts cut to 8.50% from 8.54%, also cutting 2023 year-end projections to 5.10% from 5.11%. Of note, 2022 GDP was raised to 2.50% from 2.00% and 2023 GDP was cut to 0.90% from 1.10%. The 2022 year-end exchange rate was lowered to 20.30 from 20.50.
  • All 26 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg are forecasting a 75bp hike from Banxico on Thursday, bringing the overnight rate to 10.00%. Most appear to be calling for a unanimous decision, however, some analysts highlight there are risks of less-hawkish members signalling the potential to de-couple from the Fed as we enter the latter stages of the hiking cycle. This could come by either a dissenting vote for a smaller hike or potentially within the minutes on November 24.
    • The full MNI preview with analyst views will be published later today.
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