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USDMXN Extends Session Losses To 1.4%, Swaps Curve Bear Steepens

MEXICO
  • USDMXN continuing to track lower over the US session, extending intra-day declines to 1.4% following the better-than-expected industrial output figures and the more benign backdrop for risk sentiment to start the week.
  • Risk-sensitive currencies and by default, the emerging market fx basket, are outperforming following the improved China credit data and the associated broad greenback weakness. On the downside for USDMXN, support to watch lies at the 50-day EMA which intersects at 17.1243.
  • Currency optimism in Mexico runs contrary to the TIIE curve, which has bear steepened after factoring in the increased spending plans in president AMLO’s final proposed budget for 2024.
  • Despite the adjustments, Barclays have highlighted that the proposal is responsible:
  • “The FY24 budget proposal submitted to Congress could contribute to an economically stable close to AMLO’s administration, as the assumptions appear realistic, the end result in terms of deficit and debt-to-GDP ratio seems responsible, and it is explicit on how the government will provide financial support to Pemex”, according to their report.
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