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USDMXN Gravitating Back Towards 17.00 Mark

MEXICO
  • Despite USDMXN bouncing from a fresh trend low of 16.9811 last Wednesday, the broader downtrend remains intact. Scope remains for a move towards 16.9791 and 16.7758, the 1.618 and 1.764 projections of the Jun 2 - Mar 9 - Mar 20 price swing. Resistance to watch is the 50-day EMA, which intersects at 17.4283. This is a key short-term hurdle for bulls, where a clear break would signal a stronger reversal and open 17.7714, the May 31 high.
    • Last week’s very marginally firmer-than-expectation CPI data is unlikely to have any effect on Banxico’s reaction function given how close to the central bank’s forecasts the data sits. November continues to remain the most likely point at which a rate cut could be expected.
  • For Monday’s agenda, the alliance of opposition parties known as “El Frente Amplio por Mexico,” made by the National Action Party, the Institutional Revolutionary Party and the Democratic Revolution Party, will announce a final list of candidates for nomination in the 2024 federal elections.
  • Separately, Former Foreign Affairs Minister Marcelo Ebrard will announce a security plan for Mexico, as part of his campaign to become the ruling party presidential candidate.
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