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USDMXN Prints Fresh Six-Month Lows At 16.75

MEXICO
  • Price action following the US CPI data saw USDMXN have a moderate bounce above 16.85, however, the ongoing grind lower for the pair has since ensued. Spot is now breaching below last week’s lows and is notably back below the key support level of 16.7852, the Jan 8 low. A clear break of this level would confirm a resumption of the downtrend and opens 16.6262, the Jul 28 2023 low. Initial resistance moves down to 16.9485, the 20-day EMA.
  • Analysts continue to point to the usual themes of high real rates, low volatility and the near-shoring thesis as bolstering the bullish MXN call. There are no domestic data points in Mexico for the rest of this week, which will leave global drivers in the front seat as we approach the March Banxico decision on March 21. Initial analyst estimates point to the central bank initiating the easing cycle with a 25bp rate cut to 11.00%.
  • In local news, the government has revoked two clean energy permits known as “certificados de energia limpia” benefiting the country’s Federal Energy Commission (CFE), Bloomberg Linea reported citing government documents.

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