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MEXICO: USDMXN Probing 2025 Low, Attention on Upcoming Ebrard Comments

MEXICO
  • Despite the firmer greenback in the aftermath of the US PPI data, USDMXN has been creeping lower, sitting just above the key support at 20.1343, of which a test below would see spot reach a new low for 2025. On the downside, immediate attention turns to the December low at 20.0219, with greater downside momentum targeting 19.7618, the Nov 7 low.
  • Resistance moves down to the 20- and 50-day moving averages, intersecting around the 20.40 mark.
  • Banorte continue to see value in tactical USDMXN longs, and suggest buying dips around the 20.20 area, a level that has served as strong peso resistance. They note the tariff situation continues to provide an environment of potential episodes of volatility, coupled with a lower attractiveness for carry and a very low net long positioning.
  • As noted, the domestic focus on Thursday rests on President Sheinbaum’s daily press briefing, where Economy Minister Ebrard is scheduled to provide an update on the trade discussions between US/Mex officials.
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  • Despite the firmer greenback in the aftermath of the US PPI data, USDMXN has been creeping lower, sitting just above the key support at 20.1343, of which a test below would see spot reach a new low for 2025. On the downside, immediate attention turns to the December low at 20.0219, with greater downside momentum targeting 19.7618, the Nov 7 low.
  • Resistance moves down to the 20- and 50-day moving averages, intersecting around the 20.40 mark.
  • Banorte continue to see value in tactical USDMXN longs, and suggest buying dips around the 20.20 area, a level that has served as strong peso resistance. They note the tariff situation continues to provide an environment of potential episodes of volatility, coupled with a lower attractiveness for carry and a very low net long positioning.
  • As noted, the domestic focus on Thursday rests on President Sheinbaum’s daily press briefing, where Economy Minister Ebrard is scheduled to provide an update on the trade discussions between US/Mex officials.