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USTs (very) briefly hit post-FOMC highs

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  • In early European trading, Treasury futures spiked to their highest levels since last week's FOMC meeting while Bund futures moved to their highest level of the week. However, the majority of this move has since been reversed. There was no major headline driver, although Treasuries had been moving a little higher as it looks increasingly likely that the Republicans would not win overall control of both the House and the Senate. A Republican House and Democrat Senate was seen as the most likely outcome by the MNI Political Risk team (they assigned it a 55% probability) but Republican control of both was expected by many in the market.
  • There has been some divergence in curve moves, however, with the German curve steepening, the UST curve seeing parallel moves and the gilt curve flattening.
  • The market is still looking ahead to tomorrow's US CPI release with wholesale inventories the only data due today.
  • TY1 futures are down -0-3+ today at 110-05+ with 10y UST yields up 1.9bp at 4.146% and 2y yields up 2.0bp at 4.673%.
  • Bund futures are up 0.08 today at 137.17 with 10y Bund yields down -1.6bp at 2.262% and Schatz yields down -3.2bp at 2.152%.
  • Gilt futures are up 0.11 today at 101.82 with 10y yields up 2.4bp at 3.570% and 2y yields up 4.5bp at 3.258%.
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  • In early European trading, Treasury futures spiked to their highest levels since last week's FOMC meeting while Bund futures moved to their highest level of the week. However, the majority of this move has since been reversed. There was no major headline driver, although Treasuries had been moving a little higher as it looks increasingly likely that the Republicans would not win overall control of both the House and the Senate. A Republican House and Democrat Senate was seen as the most likely outcome by the MNI Political Risk team (they assigned it a 55% probability) but Republican control of both was expected by many in the market.
  • There has been some divergence in curve moves, however, with the German curve steepening, the UST curve seeing parallel moves and the gilt curve flattening.
  • The market is still looking ahead to tomorrow's US CPI release with wholesale inventories the only data due today.
  • TY1 futures are down -0-3+ today at 110-05+ with 10y UST yields up 1.9bp at 4.146% and 2y yields up 2.0bp at 4.673%.
  • Bund futures are up 0.08 today at 137.17 with 10y Bund yields down -1.6bp at 2.262% and Schatz yields down -3.2bp at 2.152%.
  • Gilt futures are up 0.11 today at 101.82 with 10y yields up 2.4bp at 3.570% and 2y yields up 4.5bp at 3.258%.