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UTILITIES: Thames Water (Ba2[N]): Price Action

UTILITIES
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  • Interesting price action in THAMES since the 2-notch downgrade from Moody’s. Class A € dropped 3-4pts on the news but closed off the lows; after a 2+pt rally today the 27s are above where they were pre-rating change.
  • It’s possible the 70c level triggered some short covering with haircuts estimated in the 15-30c range.
  • Perversely, in our view the downgrade could be a positive for bondholders if it triggers SAR sooner. If SAR is inevitable, arguably the sooner it happens the better, with less emergency cash required from the government.
  • We see government funding as a key variable for eventual haircuts. Media reports on “Project Timber” suggested £5bn which seems excessive vs 5-year capital requirements around £5.7bn. It also depends on to what extent that funding adds to the RCV and is therefore recoverable post restructuring.
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  • Interesting price action in THAMES since the 2-notch downgrade from Moody’s. Class A € dropped 3-4pts on the news but closed off the lows; after a 2+pt rally today the 27s are above where they were pre-rating change.
  • It’s possible the 70c level triggered some short covering with haircuts estimated in the 15-30c range.
  • Perversely, in our view the downgrade could be a positive for bondholders if it triggers SAR sooner. If SAR is inevitable, arguably the sooner it happens the better, with less emergency cash required from the government.
  • We see government funding as a key variable for eventual haircuts. Media reports on “Project Timber” suggested £5bn which seems excessive vs 5-year capital requirements around £5.7bn. It also depends on to what extent that funding adds to the RCV and is therefore recoverable post restructuring.