MNI China Daily Summary: Tuesday, December 10

MNI BRIEF: China Nov Exports Slows, Imports Slide

MNI BRIEF: China Crude Oil Imports Accelerate In November

CHINA NOV EXPORTS +6.7% Y/Y VS MEDIAN +8.9% Y/Y: CUSTOMS

MNI: CHINA YTD EXPORTS +6.7% Y/Y IN YUAN TERM: CUSTOMS

MNI: PBOC Net Injects CNY90.3 Bln via OMO Tuesday

MNI: GERMAN NOV CPI +2.2 % Y/Y

MNI: NORWAY NOV CORE CPI +0.1% M/M, +3% Y/Y

MNI: NORWAY NOV CPI +0.3% M/M, +2.4% Y/Y

MNI EXCLUSIVE: EU-Mercosur Deal Close, But Likely Short-Lived - Officials

AUSTRALIA: 2025 Election Outcome Looking More Uncertain According To Newspoll

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UTILITIES: Thames Water (Ba2[N]): Price Action

UTILITIES
  • Interesting price action in THAMES since the 2-notch downgrade from Moody’s. Class A € dropped 3-4pts on the news but closed off the lows; after a 2+pt rally today the 27s are above where they were pre-rating change.
  • It’s possible the 70c level triggered some short covering with haircuts estimated in the 15-30c range.
  • Perversely, in our view the downgrade could be a positive for bondholders if it triggers SAR sooner. If SAR is inevitable, arguably the sooner it happens the better, with less emergency cash required from the government.
  • We see government funding as a key variable for eventual haircuts. Media reports on “Project Timber” suggested £5bn which seems excessive vs 5-year capital requirements around £5.7bn. It also depends on to what extent that funding adds to the RCV and is therefore recoverable post restructuring.
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