UVA Report Suggests Latino Swing To Republican Party Overestimated

The UVA Center for Politics has released a new report on voting trends amongst Latino voters which has concluded that a much publicised swing to the GOP, observed since the 2020 general election, is less pronounced than projected.

• 2020 presidential election exit polls showed Donald Trump increased his share of the Latino despite a decrease in his share of the popular vote. At the same time Latino areas in Florida and on the Texas-Mexico border showed a dramatic swing toward the GOP.
• Exit polls from the 2021 Virginia gubernatorial elections also showed Glenn Youngkin (R-VA) winning a majority of the Latino vote.
• Because of these exit poll results many political strategist identified a trend of the Latino vote away from the Democrats which would continue to intensify.
• The UVA report, however, suggests that 'presidential incumbency appears to have a stronger influence on Latino voters than on other demographic groups.'
• The report goes on: '...if this pattern holds again in 2024 and Joe Biden is running for a second term, we could see a rebound in Democratic support among Latino voters...'
• This is encouraging news for Democrats as the partisan loyalty of the Latino community is considered crucial for electoral success in Florida, Texas, and Arizona.
• The full report can be found here.