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NORWAY: Vacancy Rate Eases In Q4, Approaching 2010-19 Beveridge Curves

NORWAY
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The Norwegian seasonally adjusted vacancy rate eased to 2.8% in Q4, down from 3.1% in Q3 for the lowest since March 2021. This is down from a post-covid high of 4.0%, with labour demand easing amid subdued mainland activity (most recently highlighted by this morning’s Q4 GDP report).

  • Labour market rebalancing has been more pronounced in vacancy than unemployment statistics. While the NAV unemployment claims rate (which Norges Bank focuses on) has drifted away from 2022 lows, it remains below 2010-2019 levels.
  • Norway now appears to be approaching points on 2010-2019 Beveridge curves, but this does immediately signal scope for more pronounced increases in unemployment rates ahead (the charts below plot the unemployment claims rate as well as the LFS unemployment rate).
  • This contrasts to the Eurozone, where unemployment rates remain at historically low levels despite easing vacancy rates.

 

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The Norwegian seasonally adjusted vacancy rate eased to 2.8% in Q4, down from 3.1% in Q3 for the lowest since March 2021. This is down from a post-covid high of 4.0%, with labour demand easing amid subdued mainland activity (most recently highlighted by this morning’s Q4 GDP report).

  • Labour market rebalancing has been more pronounced in vacancy than unemployment statistics. While the NAV unemployment claims rate (which Norges Bank focuses on) has drifted away from 2022 lows, it remains below 2010-2019 levels.
  • Norway now appears to be approaching points on 2010-2019 Beveridge curves, but this does immediately signal scope for more pronounced increases in unemployment rates ahead (the charts below plot the unemployment claims rate as well as the LFS unemployment rate).
  • This contrasts to the Eurozone, where unemployment rates remain at historically low levels despite easing vacancy rates.

 

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