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SWEDEN: Vacancy To Unemployment Claims Ratio Posts Fresh Cycle Low

SWEDEN
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The Swedish unemployment claims rate (from the Public Employment Service) was steady at 7.0% for the fourth consecutive month in February. However, a renewed fall in vacancies (90.3k vs 98.2k prior; -21% Y/Y) signals labour market conditions are still loosening somewhat. The vacancy-to-unemployment-claims ratio fell to 0.25 (vs 0.27 prior), the lowest since May 2021. 

  • While the Riksbank are firmly expected to remain on hold next Thursday on the back of increased inflationary pressures, Governor Thedeen noted at yesterday’s Parliamentary Hearing that activity signals at the start of 2025 have been mixed. The labour market remains a weak point, keeping focus on Friday’s LFS data. The LFS unemployment rate is expected to pull back from January’s spike to 9.7% (cons 8.9%).
  • 4,700 workers were served redundancy notices in February. That’s below January’s 5,100, but the 3mma ticked up to 5,169 (vs 5,111).
  • Note, the unemployment rate quoted above includes people in job support programmes. The figure quoted on the Bloomberg calendar only includes unemployment claimants (i.e. excluding those in support programmes). 
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The Swedish unemployment claims rate (from the Public Employment Service) was steady at 7.0% for the fourth consecutive month in February. However, a renewed fall in vacancies (90.3k vs 98.2k prior; -21% Y/Y) signals labour market conditions are still loosening somewhat. The vacancy-to-unemployment-claims ratio fell to 0.25 (vs 0.27 prior), the lowest since May 2021. 

  • While the Riksbank are firmly expected to remain on hold next Thursday on the back of increased inflationary pressures, Governor Thedeen noted at yesterday’s Parliamentary Hearing that activity signals at the start of 2025 have been mixed. The labour market remains a weak point, keeping focus on Friday’s LFS data. The LFS unemployment rate is expected to pull back from January’s spike to 9.7% (cons 8.9%).
  • 4,700 workers were served redundancy notices in February. That’s below January’s 5,100, but the 3mma ticked up to 5,169 (vs 5,111).
  • Note, the unemployment rate quoted above includes people in job support programmes. The figure quoted on the Bloomberg calendar only includes unemployment claimants (i.e. excluding those in support programmes). 
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