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Vague Policy Shift From Jackson Hole

US TSYS SUMMARY

Shift to avg inflation targeting, vague "moderate" overshoot (not large...and not for long). Fed Chair Powell talk from Jackson Hole symposium was unequivocally dovish, just not dovish enough. Tsys reversed off session highs to extending session lows by the time the Fed chairman signed off. US$ rebounded after selling off back to mid-Aug 2Y lows; equities extending highs after trading weaker.

  • Long end sold off sharply after Fed Chair Powell got underway (outlines the new "flexible" average inflation framework; revised Longer-Run Goals Statement is also released).
  • Third STRONG auction US Tsy $47B 7Y Note auction (91282CAH4) stops through w/ 0.519% rate (0.446% last month) vs. 0.530% WI; 2.47 bid/cover vs. 2.45 prior.
  • Heavy volume Eurodollar Whites (EDU0-EDM1) over 1.1M futures tied to Vanguard Fund annc $125B Prime MMF to Gov security fund. Chatter move could widen FRA/OIS.
  • The 2-Yr yield is up 0.6bps at 0.1563%, 5-Yr is up 2.2bps at 0.3067%, 10-Yr is up 5.2bps at 0.7407%, and 30-Yr is up 8.4bps at 1.497%.

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