VdL Gathers Support From EU Leaders, But 2nd Term Not Assured

National leaders from a number of EU states have voiced their support for European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen's announcement that she will seek a second five-year term in office following the June European Parliament elections. Of the 10 EU member states that have a head of gov't/state hailing from the EU-level centre-right European People's Party (EPP), of which VdL is a member, nine have voiced their support for the incumbent being the group's lead candidate (only Irish Taoiseach Leo Varadkar has yet to publicly back VdL).

• There remain a number of potential impediments to VdL's re-election. In the process of electing a Commission president, the European Council first proposes a candidate. This does not require unanimity, but a qualified majority (55% of member states representing 65% of EU population). None of the EU's four largest countries by population have a head of gov't from the EPP, meaning there is no guarantee that they would offer their backing to a second VdL term post-EP elections.
• Should VdL get the support of the EUCO, then she would face a vote in Parliament requiring an overall majority. In the 2019 vote, she secured the support of 383 MEPs, just over the 374 threshold required for a majority.
• Based on average seat projections in Feb, the combined number of MEPs from the EPP, liberal Renew Europe and centre-left Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats following the elections could stand at 400. Given that not all S&D or RE MEPs could be relied on to back VdL, her re-election is not guaranteed.