VdL & Michel Visit Turkey On Mission To Repair Relations

As noted in the Turkey bullet at 0726BST, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and European Council President visit Turkey today in an effort to reset the strained relations that are evident between Brussels and Ankara.

• For Brussels, there have been some small signs of an effort on behalf of the Turkish gov't to improve relations, with the escalation in tensions in the Eastern Mediterranean between Turkey, Greece, and Cyprus that risked spilling over into an overt conflict last year cooling thanks to a series of talks between the parties.
• The most important political issue for the EU and Turkey to address is migration. While both are key foreign policy actors, Ankara is well aware that its continued hosting of millions of Syrian refugees and other Middle Eastern and Asian migrants is something that the EU and its member states will do almost anything to see continue.
• A new wave of migration from Turkey to western and central Europe, as seen in 2014/15, would put significant strain on the already-stretched Frontex border forces and could see a major public backlash against the EU and national leaders among the affected member states.
• As such, while Turkey cannot afford to overplay its hand if it wants to revamp the EU-Turkey customs union and achieve visa liberalisation, the EU institutional leaders are likely to find themselves up against a fairly resolute Turkish administration, unwilling to give many concessions.