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VENEZUELA-Maduro With 75% Probability Of Win According To Bettors

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Venezuela holds its presidential election on Sunday 28 July with the vote potentially proving seismic with regards to the country's political and economic environment. Incumbent President Nicolás Maduro is seeking a third six-year term in office, while the opposition has coalesced around a single candidate (previously-unknown diplomat Edmundo González), raising the prospect of the ouster of the governing far-left United Socialist Party of Venezuela (PSUV) for the first time in 25 years.

  • An Oct 2023 agreement between the gov't and opposition on holding free and fair elections saw the US remove a ban on the secondary trading of Venezuelan gov't bonds and relax various sanctions on hydrocarbons for an initial six months.
  • The Maduro gov'ts actions since then - notably barring main opposition figure María Corina Machado from standing for the presidency - has seen the sanctions relief expire and millions of dollars in aid frozen.
  • While the election has been billed as more open than previous contests, there appears to be broad expectation that Maduro will win, as he said himselfin a February rally "by hook or by crook".
  • Political betting markets show Maduro as the strong favourite, with a 75% implied probability of winning according to data from Polymarket.
  • The huge exodus of Venezuelans, fleeing widespread poverty caused by the country's economic collapse, will also depress the opposition's chances. Of the estimated7.8mn Venezuelans living abroad, less than 1% are registered as out-of-country voters. Moreover, neither the US nor Ecuador, each with Venezeulan populations in the hundreds of thousands, have Venezuelan consulates for expats to vote at.
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Venezuela holds its presidential election on Sunday 28 July with the vote potentially proving seismic with regards to the country's political and economic environment. Incumbent President Nicolás Maduro is seeking a third six-year term in office, while the opposition has coalesced around a single candidate (previously-unknown diplomat Edmundo González), raising the prospect of the ouster of the governing far-left United Socialist Party of Venezuela (PSUV) for the first time in 25 years.

  • An Oct 2023 agreement between the gov't and opposition on holding free and fair elections saw the US remove a ban on the secondary trading of Venezuelan gov't bonds and relax various sanctions on hydrocarbons for an initial six months.
  • The Maduro gov'ts actions since then - notably barring main opposition figure María Corina Machado from standing for the presidency - has seen the sanctions relief expire and millions of dollars in aid frozen.
  • While the election has been billed as more open than previous contests, there appears to be broad expectation that Maduro will win, as he said himselfin a February rally "by hook or by crook".
  • Political betting markets show Maduro as the strong favourite, with a 75% implied probability of winning according to data from Polymarket.
  • The huge exodus of Venezuelans, fleeing widespread poverty caused by the country's economic collapse, will also depress the opposition's chances. Of the estimated7.8mn Venezuelans living abroad, less than 1% are registered as out-of-country voters. Moreover, neither the US nor Ecuador, each with Venezeulan populations in the hundreds of thousands, have Venezuelan consulates for expats to vote at.