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VENEZUELA-Prospect Of Maduro Ouster Shrinks After Gonzalez Leaves Country

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Earlier this week, opposition presidential candidate Edmunto González flew into exile in Spain having been the subject of repeated attempts at detention by government-linked security services and having an arrest warrant issued against him by the attorney general. The opposition campaign aimed at removing President Nicolas Maduro from office following the July election was at one point bringing thousands onto the streets demanding Maduro's resignation. However, a significant gov't crackdown combined with efforts to arrest and suppress opposition leader's voices has seen the Maduro gov't hold onto the reins of power.

  • Opposition figurehead María Corina Machado, currently in hiding, has called for fresh protests and reaffirmed her view that Gonzalez will be inaugurated in January. However, without significant external intervention or a shift in allegiance from the security services, it appears unlikely that Maduro will be removed from power any time soon.
  • In terms of implications, this is likely to mean Venezuela remaining isolated on the international stage. While the US is yet to intervene significantly, the gradual rollback of sanctions seen earlier in 2024 has abruptly halted and there is the prospect for new sanctions on individuals and entities (focused on politicians, military officials, and the country's oil sector) to be imposed.
  • The harsh crackdown and refusal to release proof of his election win has also seen Maduro lose regional allies, with the leftist gov'ts of Colombia and Brazil - previously sympathetic, or at least neutral towards Maduro - now distancing themselves.
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Earlier this week, opposition presidential candidate Edmunto González flew into exile in Spain having been the subject of repeated attempts at detention by government-linked security services and having an arrest warrant issued against him by the attorney general. The opposition campaign aimed at removing President Nicolas Maduro from office following the July election was at one point bringing thousands onto the streets demanding Maduro's resignation. However, a significant gov't crackdown combined with efforts to arrest and suppress opposition leader's voices has seen the Maduro gov't hold onto the reins of power.

  • Opposition figurehead María Corina Machado, currently in hiding, has called for fresh protests and reaffirmed her view that Gonzalez will be inaugurated in January. However, without significant external intervention or a shift in allegiance from the security services, it appears unlikely that Maduro will be removed from power any time soon.
  • In terms of implications, this is likely to mean Venezuela remaining isolated on the international stage. While the US is yet to intervene significantly, the gradual rollback of sanctions seen earlier in 2024 has abruptly halted and there is the prospect for new sanctions on individuals and entities (focused on politicians, military officials, and the country's oil sector) to be imposed.
  • The harsh crackdown and refusal to release proof of his election win has also seen Maduro lose regional allies, with the leftist gov'ts of Colombia and Brazil - previously sympathetic, or at least neutral towards Maduro - now distancing themselves.