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Verisure (VERISR; Secured B1 Pos, B+ S) private co

CONSUMER CYCLICALS
  • S&P's affirmed the alarm service provider at B+ after a €1b leverage neutral refi today.* Verisure's move to target net leverage below <4.5x (from 5.3x in FY23) was enough for Moody's to revise outlook to positive earlier today.
  • S&P sees FOCF to remain around breakeven & Moody's has adj. FCF continuing to be negative ~€100m over next 18months.
  • EBITDA growth sems to be driver on leverage moving lower - Moody's sees headline sales growing 8-10% and EBITDA margin improving by 160bs. S&P sees EBITDA growth of 12-15%.
  • Differences in outlook seem to be driven by pace of leverage falls & if it will be sustained; Moody' sees below 4.5x potential over next 12-18months & S&P does see it in range by end of '25 not '24.
  • Cash lines are little changed today, snr unsecured 29s are rated 2 notches lower
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