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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
CONSUMER CYCLICALS
- VF continuing last week's bid, 29s -2 & 32 -4. We apparently called the peak the other week (we had no view for it to flatten then).
- We still recommend caution on adding duration here with near-term catalyst skewed to downside (new Vans Head is a equity story for now). Colour for 1Q25 (3m ending June) still sounded rough - carry & roll for spread investors will give 11bps of protection for spread vol by then - not enough for us particularly given rating downgrades (we see as likely) and brand sales (that could see high growth ones like Supreme let go).
- For those pointing to no curves offering carry like VF, French Hyper & Supermarket operator Elo/Auchan (NR/BB+) should report soon and gives 60bps more on its 29s. The new 5.875% 28s (we had a screen cheap on a 55bp NIC) has moved in 25bps (on spread) & flat on yields (3m par-call only).
- Again expected to be rough earnings but we think those that went in primary (particularly hedged/on spreads) can hold it through here (implied roll-down is attractive as are outright levels/carry). Those on the side-lines should wait it out - they will get 6m+ run of no earnings after that (the private co reports half-yearly only).
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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