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VIEW: ANZ: Sticking To The Plan, Keeping Options Open

RBNZ

ANZ note that “the RBNZ raised the OCR by 50bps to 3.50% today, as expected, maintaining that “it remains appropriate to continue to tighten monetary conditions at pace”.”

  • “We continue to expect another 50bp hike at the November Monetary Policy Statement, with 25bp moves in each of the first three meetings of 2023, taking the OCR to a peak of 4.75%.”
  • “We see risks on both sides of that. On the downside, current global market volatility could quickly turn into something uglier; on the upside, core inflation may not fall as fast or as far as projected.”
  • “Interestingly, the Summary Record of Meeting showed the Committee discussed the merits of 50bps vs 75bps. That possibly reflects where the Committee see the skew of risks, and is a very different vibe to the RBA’s 25bp hike yesterday.”
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ANZ note that “the RBNZ raised the OCR by 50bps to 3.50% today, as expected, maintaining that “it remains appropriate to continue to tighten monetary conditions at pace”.”

  • “We continue to expect another 50bp hike at the November Monetary Policy Statement, with 25bp moves in each of the first three meetings of 2023, taking the OCR to a peak of 4.75%.”
  • “We see risks on both sides of that. On the downside, current global market volatility could quickly turn into something uglier; on the upside, core inflation may not fall as fast or as far as projected.”
  • “Interestingly, the Summary Record of Meeting showed the Committee discussed the merits of 50bps vs 75bps. That possibly reflects where the Committee see the skew of risks, and is a very different vibe to the RBA’s 25bp hike yesterday.”