VIEW: ANZ write that "tax cuts and rate...>

AUSTRALIA: VIEW: ANZ write that "tax cuts and rate cuts were no match for

household challenges such as high household debt, rising cost of living

(utilities, food prices, health) and pessimism about the economy. Nominal retail

sales went up a measly 0.2% m/m in September. And with rapidly rising food

prices, this wasn't enough to bring volume growth in the September quarter.

While non-food volumes grew (0.5% q/q), they were more than offset by falling

food volume (-0.3% q/q). Annual volume growth, at -0.2% y/y, was the first

negative volume growth since the 1991 recession. The unexpected weakness in

retail sales will add a bit more tension to Tuesday's meeting of the RBA Board.

However, we think no move in the cash rate is still the most likely outcome -

not least because some may see an unexpected November rate cut by the RBA as a

loss of confidence in the economic outlook."