VIEW: ANZ's overall assessment of the Minutes...>

RBA: VIEW: ANZ's overall assessment of the Minutes from the RBA April meeting is

that "there has been a subtle dovish tilt. This comes from the fact that in

discussing the prospect of a rate hike "members agreed that the likelihood of a

scenario where the cash rate would need to be increased in the near term was

low." Yet following the discussion of the easing scenario no probability

judgment was offered. This is in contrast to judgment in March that "the

probabilities around these scenarios were more evenly balanced than they had

been over the preceding year." This statement seems to offer hope to those

calling a rate cut in July, which will come after the release of Q1 GDP. We

struggle with this timing. Q1 GDP is shaping up as reasonable given the bounce

in Feb retail sales & the strength in exports in Jan & Feb, though it is early

days & there are lots of the Q1 GDP puzzle still to be published. Even if the Q1

GDP report is weak we think the RBA will want to review its forecasts in their

entirety before it moves the cash rate. The aversion to fine-tuning supports

this conclusion. If we get past May without a move we don't think the data will

evolve in a manner that supports a rate cut later in '19."