VIEW: Barclays write that "following the........>

FED: VIEW: Barclays write that "following the January FOMC meeting, we changed

our official forecast for future rate increases out of the Fed. We now expect

only one 25bp rate hike this year in September and one additional 25bp rate hike

in March 2020. This would imply a terminal target range of 2.75-3.0% for this

tightening cycle. We continue to expect the balance sheet to normalize at around

$3.5trn of securities holdings, which would imply excess reserves in the

neighbourhood of $1.0trn. We expect this level to be reached in late Q1 20 or

early Q2. Risks to our outlook for a balance sheet run-off are for an earlier

end to run-off should demand for reserve balances be larger than we expect."