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View Change: Barclays: Two 25bp hikes this year but risk of 50bp in August

BOE
  • “While we think a 25bp hike [in August] remains the baseline, May and June inflation may result in a 50bp rise, as now expected by the market. We change our call and expect one more 25bp hike to 1.75% in September.”
  • Previously, Barclays had expected the August hike to be the last.
  • “The MPC introduced new guidance at the June meeting, which is more flexible and possibly more hawkish… Importantly, as well, the dovish dissenters in May have backtracked by voting for 25bp at this meeting, and they appear to have fallen in line with the new guidance.”
  • “Core service inflation has been on an upward trend since early 2021 but has spiralled this year, jumping up from 3.2%y/y in December 2021 to 4.9%y/y in April 2022... We believe that the new guidance now fully reflects the view that services, and in particular core services, are a relevant proxy of inflation persistence and possible second-round effects and, accordingly, a relevant indicator for the conduct of monetary policy.”
  • “We see “forcefully” as a codeword for a 50bp hike”
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