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VIEW CHANGE: Berenberg looks for 25bp in June but still expect Q4 cut

  • Berenberg has updated its BOE forecast after this morning's inflation data.
  • It now expects a 25bp hike in June (following the May meeting it had said a 30% probability).
  • "We now expect just one cut in Q4 [previously two], lifting the end-2023 rate to 4.5% from 4% previously. We keep our end-2024 call for a 3% rate unchanged – we now expect six 25bp cuts next year instead of four."

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