MNI BRIEF: China Passenger Car Sales Up In November Y/Y

MNI China Daily Summary: Monday, December 9

MNI BRIEF: China To Strengthen Policy Easing In 2025: Poliburo

MNI BRIEF: China Nov CPI Slows To 5-Month Low Of 0.2% Y/Y

MNI: PBOC Sets Yuan Parity Higher At 7.1870 Mon; -1.39% Y/Y

MNI: China CFETS Yuan Index Down 0.36% In Week of Dec 6

MNI JAPAN Q3 GDP REV +0.3% Q/Q; PRELIM +0.2%; MEDIAN +0.2%

MNI: UNIV OF MICHIGAN CONSUMER SENTIMENT PRELIMINARY DEC INDEX 74.0

CANADA NOV IVEY PURCHASING MANAGERS INDEX 52.3 SA

MNI EXCLUSIVE: EU-Mercosur Deal Close, But Likely Short-Lived - Officials

AUSTRALIA: 2025 Election Outcome Looking More Uncertain According To Newspoll

© 1982-2024 MNI. All rights reserved.
Terms | Privacy
Log Out
Free Trial

VIEW CHANGE: Deutsche Bank looks for first cut in June rather than May

BOE
  • Deutsche Bank has pushed back its expectation of the first BOE cut from June to May, but continues to look for 75bp of cuts to 4.50% by year-end (in June, September and December). It now expects four cuts instead of six in 2025 (Feb, May, Aug, Nov) to 3.50%. It continues to see the terminal rate at 3.00% but pushes two of the cuts into H1-26.
  • It notes three main drivers to this call change: "Downside news to wage growth has unwound... Inflationary pressures have cooled, but services CPI now sitting above MPC projections... Growth risks have shifted firmly to the upside."
  • It notes that even with this change: "Risks are skewed to a slower start and higher terminal rate, but asymmetric risks will likely build in a higher for longer world."
  • "Waiting until June comes with its own risks, particularly with March and April wage and inflation data likely to be erratic on the back of indexlinked and administered price/wage rises. This could further delay the start of the first rate cut – perhaps to summer (August)." It notes that the key will be the interpretation against the forecasts in the May MPR.
  • "We see upside risks to our terminal rate view given shifting growth and inflation dynamics in the US and more globally. A resurgence in UK inflation around the turn of the year – similar to what the US is seeing now – would arrest any easing cycle, leaving Bank Rate higher for longer. But upside risks to our terminal rate view need not impact our view of where the UK neutral rate is (2.75% - 3.25%). A higher for longer world raises its own risks, reigniting concerns of a hard landing (both domestically and abroad)."
DataHomepagemarkets-real-timeCreditData BulletBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsForeign Exchange Bullets

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.