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VIEW CHANGE: HSBC See Later And Fewer BoC Cuts On US Strength

CANADA
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  • HSBC now expect a first cut from the BoC in July (previous forecast June) and 125bp total cuts by end-2025 (vs 200bps previously).
  • “On the domestic side, underlying disinflation has continued to progress, growth has been sluggish, and productivity remains relatively poor. Looking only at the domestic data, one could still make the case for a first cut at the 5 June policy meeting, and indeed we view this decision as a close call.”
  • “However, there has been a shift in Fed expectations recently” and HSBC now expect a first cut in Sept with 100bp of cuts by end-2025.
  • “Though many central banks take their cue from the Fed, the policy rate path of the Bank of Canada (BoC) is especially linked.”
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  • HSBC now expect a first cut from the BoC in July (previous forecast June) and 125bp total cuts by end-2025 (vs 200bps previously).
  • “On the domestic side, underlying disinflation has continued to progress, growth has been sluggish, and productivity remains relatively poor. Looking only at the domestic data, one could still make the case for a first cut at the 5 June policy meeting, and indeed we view this decision as a close call.”
  • “However, there has been a shift in Fed expectations recently” and HSBC now expect a first cut in Sept with 100bp of cuts by end-2025.
  • “Though many central banks take their cue from the Fed, the policy rate path of the Bank of Canada (BoC) is especially linked.”