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VIEW CHANGE: JP Morgan: At least 25bp in August with terminal rate of 5.75%

BOE
  • “We think at least a 25bp is very likely for August (with a risk of 50bp). Beyond then visibility is lower, but we now look for a higher terminal rate of 5.75% in November (5% previously).”
  • “The BoE made the right choice, in our view, but such low expectations going into this meeting exposes the lack of clarity in the BoE’s reaction function. Its decision to say less rather than more outside of meetings, and provide such limited forward guidance, has added to that confusion. But the BoE will also probably feel that observers should learn from this episode, such that more uncertainty is attached to future decisions where there is more than one plausible outcome.”
  • “We assume data surprises probably will have further to run, but also expect some guidance tweaks from the Bank to signal it is not done yet under its base new case.”
  • “One issue we are conscious of is that the BoE in August will again have a chance to reset its forecasts, pushing its near term inflation projection higher. This would make it somewhat harder (although clearly still possible) for the data to again come in higher than it is forecasting. This could hence leave open the possibility of a pause thereafter.”
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