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Corrective Bounce Still In Play

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View Change: MS: Add a cut in 2023 to forecast; look for 2.25% in 2022

BOE
  • “It is not entirely clear what marginal information pushed the BoE to increase its pace of tightening... Another upwards near-term revision to inflation forecasts – due to gas prices – likely prevailed in the MPC discussions.”
  • “It is hard to call the September decision. We see another coin toss decision between a 25bp and a 50bp hike, but we stick to our call of a 25bp move, on balance. As globally, we see central banks pivoting over 4Q22, we see a dovish November meeting and a final 25bp hike then. We now introduce a cut at the end of next year, at the November meeting.”
  • This leaves Bank Rate at 2.25% at end 2022 (up from 2.00%) with an unchanged forecast of 2.00% in 2023.
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  • “It is not entirely clear what marginal information pushed the BoE to increase its pace of tightening... Another upwards near-term revision to inflation forecasts – due to gas prices – likely prevailed in the MPC discussions.”
  • “It is hard to call the September decision. We see another coin toss decision between a 25bp and a 50bp hike, but we stick to our call of a 25bp move, on balance. As globally, we see central banks pivoting over 4Q22, we see a dovish November meeting and a final 25bp hike then. We now introduce a cut at the end of next year, at the November meeting.”
  • This leaves Bank Rate at 2.25% at end 2022 (up from 2.00%) with an unchanged forecast of 2.00% in 2023.